Violent Crime is More Common in Europe than the USA
歐洲的暴力犯罪比美國普遍
An interesting 2011 paper looks at crime rates since 1970 in the United States and 8 major European countries. The authors, mostly Italian, come to a conclusion that will surprise many people: Europe has become more dangerous than the United States:
一項自1970年到2011年的報告研究美國和八大歐洲國家的犯罪率。研究人員大部分是義大利人，而研究的結論使許多人感到意外：歐洲已經變得比美國更危險：
In 1970 the aggregate crime rate in the seven European countries we consider was 63% of the corresponding US figure, but by 2007 it was 85% higher than in the United States. This striking reversal results from a steady increase in the total crime rate in Europe during the last 40 years, and the decline in the US rate after 1990. The reversal of misfortunes is also observed for property and violent crimes.
在1970年，歐洲的七個國家的總犯罪率和美國比起來為63%，但是到了2007年，數字成為了高過美國的85%。之所以會「逆轉」是由於過去40年歐洲的犯罪率穩定增加，而美國則是下降。財產和暴力犯罪也發生了不幸的逆轉。
An important caveat is that these numbers exclude homicide. The US homicide rate is currently 3-4 times higher than in most European countries. As I've pointed out, this fact is due mostly to two factors: the extremely high rate of black-on-black homicide in the US (52% of all persons arrested in the USA for homicide are black), and of course the wide prevalence of guns in the USA.
要注意的就是這些數據不包含殺人。美國目前的殺人率高過歐洲國家3至4倍。就如我已指出的（譯註：他之前應該有寫過相關的文章），這個罪行有兩大因素：美國極高的黑人殺黑人率（美國所有已逮捕入獄的殺人犯有52％是黑人），還有當然就是美國的槍枝普遍。
Homicide is actually not terribly relevant to public safety. It's much more rare than all other violent crimes, and is overwhelmingly concentrated among certain subgroups. Most homicides occur within an existing relationship, and many others occur among criminal subgroups such as gangs or drug users. The chance of an ordinary European or American being murdered by a stranger in a crime of opportunity is infinitesimally small.
殺人其實和公共安全沒有很大的關連。殺人比其他暴力犯罪更為稀少，而且絕大多數集中在子群內。殺人通常發生在現有關係中，很多都是發生在犯罪群體，例如幫派和吸毒者。一個普通的歐洲人或美國人被陌生人殺害的機會是非常小的。
As for general background violence in society, Europe is, statistically, more dangerous. It's interesting to speculate about why this might be. I suspect mass hooligan confrontations between football fans probably plays some rule: Every weekend there are dozens of unruly confrontations between rival football fans which may generate dozens of arrests at once. But still, these have been going on for quite a while.
對於一般社會背景的暴力，歐洲以數據來講是更為危險。推測原因是有趣的。我懷疑足球迷之間的大規模對抗會形成一種作用：每周末，兩隊的足球迷會有幾十次的不規矩對抗，也就是會造成一次就有數十人被逮捕。但是，這些情況已經持續了很長一段時間。
The authors of the study perform statistical analyses to try to determine why European crime has increased. They do not identify immigration as a significant factor, although they say this is mainly for lack of data. The one factor they do identify as significant is length of incarceration. They argue that Europe's comparatively lenient criminal-sentencing regimes help to explain the crime increase. They find that length of criminal sentence does have an effect on crime rates, and suggest that Europe should increase prison sentences.
研究人員進行統計分析，想找出為甚麼歐洲的犯罪增高。他們不認為移民是重大因素，儘管他們說主要是因為缺乏數據。其中一個他們認定的重大因素是監禁時間。他們認為歐洲的寬鬆刑事判決制度有助解釋犯罪增加。他們發現監禁時間確實和犯罪率有影響。
At the end of the day, the universal rule for all developed societies holds: crime is concentrated among poor and minority areas, and if you avoid these, your chances of being the victim of a violent crime are minimal. But still, anyone who praises Europe as safer than the USA needs to update their stereotypes.
最後，對所有發達社會的普遍規則就是：犯罪集中在貧窮和少數民族地區，如果你想避免這些情況，你成為暴力受害者的機會是很少的。儘管如此，每個認為歐洲治安比美國好的人需要更新一下他們的刻板印象。
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